2026 NHL Draft: Ones to watch
Followers of the 2026 NHL Draft are well aware of the names expected to headline this class. Prospects like Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, Keaton Verhoeff, Chase Reid, and Ethan Belchetz have firmly established themselves near the top of early draft boards. Historically, draft analytics consistently show a strong relationship between draft position and NHL outcomes, with top-five selections carrying the highest probability of long NHL careers, while expected games played decline sharply as picks move further down the board. That relationship may seem intuitive, but what those same studies also reveal is where real differentiation begins. Even at the very top of the draft, there are players selected who ultimately fall short of their pre-draft projections. Once you move outside the consensus “top tier,” outcomes become far less predictable, and context starts to outweigh draft slot. League difficulty, role, usage, and development trajectory matter far more than raw ranking alone. This is where NHL teams truly differentiate themselves, separating organizations that draft well from those that struggle to accurately project what they are getting in a player.
Identifying value becomes less about consensus reputation and more about understanding how a player is being used and where their production is coming from. This report focuses on five such players. Each stands out for a different reason, whether it be driving offense against stronger competition, taking on outsized responsibility for club or country, navigating an unconventional development path, or rising rapidly within their league. They may not dominate early rankings today, but history suggests this is precisely the range of the draft where careful evaluation can uncover players who outperform expectations and meaningfully outplay their eventual draft position. 1 Alberts Šmits. Alberts Šmits stands out in this draft class because he is already handling meaningful minutes in a men’s professional league. Playing for Jukurit in Liiga, the Finnish top league, Šmits is averaging just over 20 minutes per game as a draft-eligible defenseman, a significant marker of trust in a league that suppresses scoring and does not hand responsibility to young players lightly. His raw plus-minus of 0, and modest point totals (6 goals, 7 assists) in 33 games, undersell the difficulty of those minutes, which frequently come against top competition and in structurally demanding situations rather than sheltered offensive roles. That same responsibility carried over to the international stage. At the IIHF World Junior Championship, Šmits was not simply part of Latvia’s lineup, he was its backbone. He averaged over 23 minutes per game, ranking among the tournament leaders in ice time, and was tasked with running the power play, and was on the ice for all important situations, driving play from the back end. For a program like Latvia, sustaining offense requires structure and clean execution from the blue line, and Šmits consistently provided both. He absorbed pressure, moved pucks efficiently, and kept Latvia connected through transition, contributing to one of the nation’s more competitive showings at the tournament. Impressively, of Latvia’s 11 total goals, Šmits scored 1 and assisted on 4. Although he did have some mistakes, which most draft-eligibles have at the WJC, when viewed together, the picture becomes clearer. Šmits should not be evaluated solely on his great production, but also on his responsibility and composure against elite competition. The trust he has earned at both the professional level and in international play, along with his significant anticipated role for Latvia at the upcoming Olympic tournament, places him firmly in the category of prospects whose value is best understood through usage and context rather than box-score totals. For teams prioritizing projection and adaptability, Šmits represents a defender whose game is already scaling to the highest levels, defensively and offensively, with a legitimate path to emerging as the top defenseman in a deep NHL draft class.
2 Oscar Hemming. Oscar Hemming is one of the more intriguing projection bets in this draft class due to both his age and an unconventional development path. At just 17 years old, he entered the NCAA as the youngest player in college hockey, the result of an August 13 birthday that places him just inside the September 15 NHL Draft eligibility cutoff. After being selected in the OHL Import Draft, Hemming was unable to join major junior due to his Finnish club not releasing him, delaying his North American debut before he completed his Grade 12 credits early and transitioned directly to Boston College midseason. At roughly 6’4, Hemming already possesses an NHL-sized frame with significant room to continue filling out. His early NCAA role reflects a player being introduced gradually to a demanding environment against older, stronger competition, but the key takeaway is usage: he has been trusted with regular minutes rather than treated strictly as a long-term project. Any early college production should be viewed through the lens of adaptation rather than expectation. The appeal with Hemming lies in his prior body of work. In Finland, he produced 63 points (35 goals, 28 assists) in 31 games at the U18 level, while also holding his own when called up to U20 competition, demonstrating that his offense translated as the difficulty increased. That combination of size, scoring touch, and age-adjusted production is rare and often signals a longer developmental runway. Recent draft history has shown teams are increasingly willing to bet on players growing into their frames rather than drafting solely for immediate certainty. The selection of Beckett Sennecke in 2024 is a clear example of that philosophy paying off. Hemming fits the same mold: a player drafted for what he can become, not just what he is today, making him one of the more compelling upside plays in this class.
3 Viggo Björck. Viggo Björck is one of the most enjoyable players to watch in this draft class because of how quickly he processes the game. His hockey IQ stands out immediately, both in how early he identifies pressure and how efficiently he reacts to it. That awareness allows him to play at a high tempo without forcing the game, and it consistently puts defenders on the back foot. His hands and feet are equally quick, and more importantly, they work in sync, allowing him to create advantages through timing and movement rather than volume touches. At the club level, Björck has already earned meaningful minutes in the SHL, producing 8 points (4 goals, 4 assists) in 26 games as a 17-year-old. In a league that is notoriously difficult for young forwards to score in, especially those not playing sheltered offensive roles, that production speaks more to translatability than raw output. He has shown he can keep pace with men, play within structure, and still find ways to impact the offensive side of the game. That ability carried over to the IIHF World Junior Championship, where Björck was one of Sweden’s most effective forwards. He finished the tournament with 9 points (3 goals, 6 assists) in 7 games, contributing consistently rather than in short bursts. His impact went beyond the scoresheet, as he was trusted in multiple situations, especailly in overtime and regularly drove play through smart puck movement and positioning. Björck’s appeal lies in how complete and scalable his offensive game is. He combines high-end processing speed with creativity and the ability to generate offense at pace, traits that tend to become more valuable as time and space disappear at higher levels. While he may not dominate early rankings, Björck profiles as the type of forward whose offensive value grows with competition, making him a player well worth tracking as the draft approaches.
4 J.P. Hurlbert. J.P. Hurlbert entered this draft year on an unconventional path. A Texas-born forward who developed through the USA Hockey National Team Development Program, Hurlbert opted to make his WHL debut in his draft year rather than follow a more traditional U.S. development route. That decision immediately placed him on a different evaluation track, and it has proven to be a revealing one. In his first season in the WHL, Hurlbert has led the Kamloops Blazers in both goals and assists, recording 67 points (29 goals, 38 assists) in 42 games. He currently sits 10 points clear of the next-closest teammate, a notable output for a player adjusting to a new league, new teammates, and a more demanding schedule. The underlying scoring profile is encouraging. Hurlbert is converting on 15.4% of his shots, a rate that falls well within sustainable bounds for junior hockey and suggests his production is being driven by shot quality and involvement rather than finishing variance. His offense comes from a mix of off-the-rush creation, intelligent puck movement in the offensive zone, and an ability to finish when plays break down. That production aligns with what he showed previously. During the 2024–25 season with the NTDP, Hurlbert recorded 31 points in 34 USHL games, finishing just behind fellow draft-eligible Tynan Lawrence in points per game. While Lawrence played on an older, championship-caliber Muskegon roster, Hurlbert’s numbers came in a different team context on the U18 NTDP. Committed to the University of Michigan for 2026–27, Hurlbert profiles as a forward whose offense has translated across environments. For teams evaluating not just production, but adaptability and portability, his draft-year transition to the WHL makes him one of the more compelling case studies in this class.
5 Daxon Rudolph. Daxon Rudolph’s draft profile is best understood through steady progression rather than sudden change. During his D-1 season, he ramped up his play down the stretch and into the playoffs, recording 12 points (1 goal, 11 assists) in 11 games. That late-season surge coincided with his frame filling out and his confidence increasing, and it carried directly into this year, reinforcing why he entered the season ranked around ninth among draft-eligible defensemen, a range he has largely maintained while continuing to strengthen his case. In the WHL, Rudolph has posted 50 points (20 goals, 30 assists) in 42 games, tying him for the team lead in scoring for Prince Albert. His production reflects a defenseman contributing in multiple ways rather than leaning on a single dimension. While the goal total stands out, the assist numbers highlight his poise with the puck, ability to extend plays, and intelligence in transition. His play this season has also earned him selection to the WHL Top Prospects Game, reinforcing his standing among draft-eligible peers. Rudolph is converting at a 13.9% shooting rate, an efficient and sustainable mark for a defenseman, and does so while playing at 200+ pounds, blending size, mobility, and composure without needing to operate as a high-risk offensive defender. That offensive confidence has also translated internationally, where he recorded 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in 5 games at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. Rudolph’s upside lies in sharpening his existing toolbox rather than reworking his game. As his defensive reads continue to improve, his combination of size, skating, and balanced offensive production gives him a clear path toward becoming a modern two-way defenseman with a scoring touch, and one of the more intriguing blue-liners in this deep draft class.
Honorable Mentions
Ilya Morozov started this season in Ohio at Miami University, quickly putting up a blistering 6 goals and 5 assists in 10 games, as the then youngest player in NCAA Hockey (August 3rd, 2008). He has since cooled off totalling just 3 points (1g, 2a) in his next 14 games. Despite going through a rough patch, Morozov's toolbox is undeniable and if he can get back on the proverbial horse, his draft stock could get as high as a top-half first round pick.
Twin forwards Liam Ruck and Markus Ruck have been excellent for a strong McKenna-less Medicine Hat Tigers squad this season in the WHL. Liam has recorded 63 points (26 goals, 37 assists) in 44 games, while Markus has tallied 62 points (11 goals, 51 assists) in 44 games, giving the Tigers one of the most productive sibling duos in hockey. Projected as mid-second-round picks, the twins could be an intriguing target for an NHL team holding multiple selections in that range, such as Chicago, Los Angeles, or Florida.
Draft-eligible Russians Alexey Vlasov and Egor Shilov have been electric for the Victoriaville Tigres this season, combining for top-line production in the QMJHL. Vlasov has put up 53 points (28 goals, 25 assists) in 39 games, while Shilov has tallied 56 points (21 goals, 35 assists) in 38 games, making them one of the league’s most dangerous offensive duos and players worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses.