McMichael’s Contract Year: Building on a Breakout
It is no surprise that last season Connor McMichael established himself as a full-time NHL contributor, posting 26 goals and 31 assists for 57 points across all 82 games. It was the kind of breakout year Capitals fans had been waiting for since his 2019 first-round selection. What made it more impressive was how he produced across different situations, contributing at even strength, adding value on the second power play (4 Goals, 10 Points) , and showing flashes of penalty kill responsibility. His versatility allowed the coaching staff to trust him in more minutes, and he responded by becoming a fixture in the top-six forward group. Heading into his contract year, McMichael is positioned to be a central figure in Washington’s offense. The Capitals are in a transitional phase, blending a core that still features Alex Ovechkin with a wave of young talent expected to carry the franchise forward. For McMichael, sustaining and ideally improving upon last year’s production could solidify his role as part of that next generation. Using Capital Stats’ custom offensive and defensive shot tracking models, we can get a clearer picture of where McMichael thrived in 2024-25 and where he still has room to grow. See below McMichael’s 5-on-5 shooting metrics.
The numbers in each of the three zones represent a player’s percentile rank among all NHL forwards/defensemen for Finishing (left) and Shot Suppression (right), defined as Goals For minus Expected Goals For (GF − xGF) and Expected Goals Against minus Goals Against (xGA – GA), in low, medium, and high danger areas. Additionally, in the gold outlined box, the players percentile rank of expected goals For and Against. The player’s shot map is overlayed in the offensive zone.
At five-on-five, McMichael’s finishing profile stands out in key areas. His percentile ranks across danger zones were 82.4 in low-danger, 31.6 in medium-danger, and 81.5 in high-danger. That combination suggests he converted well both around the net and from the outside but still has room to improve in those in-between areas. What pushes his profile into breakout territory is his 96.3 percentile standing in expected goals per 60 minutes, showing that he consistently drove offensive chances relative to his peers. That volume of opportunities was a key driver behind his career year. McMichael’s early-season production in 2024-25 helped earn him a larger role, and by year’s end he had cemented himself as a second-line left wing, even though his natural position is center. The transition has suited him well, and playing alongside a dynamic playmaker like Pierre-Luc Dubois and a power forward in Tom Wilson gives him both space and structure to create. That trio has the makeup of a modern second line: skill, pace, and physicality. At just 24, McMichael is the youngest of the group and represents a central piece of Washington’s forward core moving forward. What makes McMichael particularly dangerous offensively is the way his speed pairs with his ability to beat defenders in tight areas. He can attack defenders wide but is equally capable of cutting back inside with quick hands, creating high-quality looks for himself or drawing coverage that opens passing lanes. Given his extremely high xGF/60, it’s not a stretch to say his raw point totals could have been even higher last season had he capitalized on more of those generated chances. That underlying efficiency hints that more production may come naturally with added ice time and continued development.
On the power play, McMichael usually features on the second unit and occasionally slides into the first when injuries create openings. His metrics show a clear split: he sits in the 83.2 percentile in expected goals which means he helps create strong chances, but his finishing numbers remain low at 39.2 in low danger, 64.7 in medium danger, and just 13.2 in high danger. The gap between chance generation and finishing efficiency highlights an area where he can still grow to become a more reliable scoring option with the man advantage. In the upcoming season, the second unit will feature an injection of young talent that should assist a Capitals Powerplay that lacked any flashy playmaking ability.
Defensively, McMichael’s numbers highlight why his line is often trusted in shutdown situations. When Washington has the last change, his unit with Dubois and Wilson typically draws the assignment of facing opposing top lines. His defensive percentile scores in medium- and high-danger areas were both reasonably above average, indicating he was effective at limiting quality chances against. While still not elite in this area, his trajectory is positive, and being surrounded by a strong two-way presence in Dubois and the physical edge of Wilson should only accelerate his growth. That combination of defensive responsibility and offensive upside makes the line both a scoring threat and a reliable matchup tool, giving the Capitals flexibility in how they deploy their forwards.
Season Outlook
Heading into 2025-26, McMichael is expected to shoulder a slightly larger workload, with his average ice time projected to climb from 16:49 to closer to 18 minutes per game. That bump may not seem dramatic, but for a player already driving offense at five-on-five, the added shifts can translate into a meaningful uptick in production. Even a modest increase, paired with another step forward in his development, should yield noticeable results. McMichael’s offensive game is built around a quick-release wrist shot that can beat goaltenders clean from the slot, and he has shown a knack for finishing in tight with poise and creativity when given little time or space. Combined with his strong skating and ability to attack off the rush, those tools make him a multi-layered threat. His elite expected goals per 60 rate among forwards underscores just how frequently he finds himself in dangerous scoring positions, suggesting there is still untapped potential that could turn into raw numbers with more opportunity. Playing consistently with Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson also sets the stage for sustained success, as the combination of Dubois’ playmaking vision and Wilson’s physical presence creates the time and space McMichael thrives on. Furthermore, next season his second-unit role should remain steady with the possibility of first-unit looks when needed. If he can raise his finishing closer to the level of his chance creation he could add meaningful power play production to his totals.With that context, a reasonable projection would see him finish in the 28–30 goal range with 34–37 assists, pushing him beyond 64 points and into the territory of a reliable top-six producer. Achieving that level of output in his contract year would further solidify his long-term role in Washington’s lineup and put him in position for a significant payday, roughly around a $7M x 8 Year deal with Washginton, who will have fresh cap space with Ovechkin and Carlson’s big contracts coming off of the books.